Climate Change and Increased Migration: A Growing Concern for Island Nations
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The impact of climate change is expected to lead to an increased demand for migration as people seek economic opportunities.
Island nations like Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands could have an advantage in dealing with mass migration due to their contingency plans and historical ties with developed countries.
There is a lack of proactive action from developed nations in addressing the rising emigration from the region, potentially leaving unskilled and poor islanders at a disadvantage.
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"There's going to be an increased demand for migration, as people look for economic opportunities," said Benjamin Preston, an Australian government scientist in marine and atmospheric research. "And as the impact of climate change becomes more severe, that's going to add urgency into the equation."
If there is a mass exodus, countries like Tuvalu - which have contingency plans and close relations with a developed country partner like New Zealand - will have an advantage. The Marshall Islands and the Federated States of Micronesia, for example, could benefit from closer historical ties with the United States (both are former U.S.-administered trust territories). The biggest losers will be unskilled, poor islanders who cannot easily emigrate - especially in politically turbulent states like the Solomon Islands.
Preston and others say that, aside from New Zealand, there are few signs that developed nations are taking an active approach to dealing with rising emigration from the region.
That may be in part because the predicated climate change scenarios still seem too alarmist and far away to accept. Even in Tuvalu, many islanders do not see inundation as an urgent problem, said Lono Leneuoti, a Tuvaluan tourism official.
"You don't really notice that much of a difference, except during the king tide months," he said. "It's hard to believe that 50 years from now the place is going to be under water."
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