新たな炭素14年間のデータが太陽活動との関係を確認
- 新たに得られた炭素14年間のデータは、太陽活動の周期との関係を確認するだけでなく、この期間の太陽活動の状況についても重要な洞察を提供しています。
- 図1は、炭素14データで検出された太陽サイクルの信号を示しており、図2-aはデータの周波数解析を示しています。これにより、太陽サイクルの変化とその振幅が明らかになります。
- パワースペクトルは、880–960 ADの期間を通じて、9年周期（高周波雑音（<3年）に対して68％の信頼区間で±1）と18年の太陽極性逆転期を顕著に示しています。この2つの信号の全体的な意義は、それぞれ3シグマと2.7シグマです。11年の太陽サイクルの長さは、過去150年間に観測されたものより約2年短く、モーダーミニマム期間中のものより約5年短いです。
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3. Results and discussions Our new annual carbon-14 data for the EMMP not only confirm the relationship between the cycle length and solar activity level but also provide some important insights on the state of solar activity during this period. Fig. 1 shows the signal of solar cycles detected in the carbon-14 data and Fig. 2-a shows the frequency analysis of the data, exhibiting the change in solar cycles and their amplitude. The power spectrum remarkably indicates a 9-year cyclicity (± 1 for the 68% confidence level against the high-frequency noise (< 3 years) through 880–960 AD, together with an 18-year period of solar polarity reversals. The overall significances of the two signals are 3 sigma and 2.7 sigma, respectively. The length of the 11-year solar cycle is ~ 2 years shorter than that observed for the last 150 years, and ~ 5 years shorter than those during the Maunder Minimum.
- mamomo3
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以下のとおりお答えします。 3. 結果および議論 我々の新しいEMMP（Environmental Mitigation and Monitoring Plan,「環境監視と緩和計画」）のための年次炭素14のデータは、周期の長さと太陽活動レベル間の関係を確認するだけでなく、この期間での太陽活動状態における幾つかの重要な洞察を提供します。図1 は、炭素14データおよび図によって検知された太陽活動周期の信号（しるし）を示しています。図2-a は、太陽活動周期の変化およびそれらの振幅を表わすデータの周波数解析を示しています。パワー・スペクトル（力価の変動幅）は、太陽の極性反転のあった18年間とともに、西暦880-960年を通して見ると、9年の循環性があることを顕著に示しています。（ただし、3年分以上の誤差に相当する高周波雑音があるにもかかわらず、68%の信頼度をもって±1年誤差を含む）。2つの信号の全体的な有意点は、それぞれ積算でシグマ3とシグマ2.7です。11年太陽活動周期の長さは、過去150年の間観察されたものより最大2年短く、また「太陽の不規則活動期」の間のそれより最大5年短くなっています。 以上、ご回答まで。
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- drmuraberg
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ちょっとパワースペクトル以下の部分が気になりましたので。 参考訳です。 EMMPのための我々の新しい炭素14の年次データは、周期の長さと太陽活動レベルの間の 関係を確認しているだけでなく、この期間中の太陽の活動状態に付いて幾つかの重要な 洞察を提供しています。図1 は、炭素14データから検出された太陽活動周期の信号を示し、 図2-a は、そのデータの周波数解析で、太陽活動周期とそれらの振幅の変化を示しています。 パワー・スペクトル（通常はカタカナのまま）は、太陽極性反転の18年間周期と共に、 西暦880-960年を通して9年の循環性があることを明確に示している（（3年より短い） 高周波雑音に対し68%の信頼性レベルで±1年の範囲で）。2つの信号の全体的な有意性は、 それぞれ3シグマ（通常は3σと書く）と2.7シグマであった。11年の太陽活動周期の長さは、 過去150年の間観察されたものより2年程度まで短く、またマウンダー極小期の間のそれらより 5年程度まで短くなっている。
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Although the magnitude of the variations of carbon-14 is strongly attenuated through the carbon cycle after being produced by the GCRs in the atmosphere (Siegenthaler and Beer, 1988), carbon-14 in tree-rings preserve the information on the variations in solar cycles and the magnetic dipole polarity of the sun. Therefore, the variability of the “11-year” solar cycle in association with the century-scale variations of solar activity can be monitored to asses its influence on climate. The lengths of sunspot periods have been modulated by a few years since the 11-year sunspot cycle was firstly found by Schwabe (1843). The maximum range observed so far is ~ 9 to ~ 14 years, but most of the cycles fit in ~ 10–12 years with the overall average being 11 years. However, we have previously found a change in average cycle length during the Maunder Minimum ((Miyahara et al., 2004); see Supplementary Fig. S1). The sunspots were scarce through 1645–1715 AD due to the anomalous weakening of the magnetic activity at this time, yet the carbon-14 abundances show the appearance of significant cyclic changes in magnetic activity. The average length of the cycles through the 70 years was about 14 years with the 28-year period of magnetic polarity reversals. The relationship between the cycle length of the “11-year” variation in sunspots and its magnitude has been investigated in several papers (Clough, 1905, Solanki et al., 2002 and Rogers et al., 2006). A consistent feature is the inverse correlation between cycle amplitudes and cycle lengths that maybe related to the change of the meridional flows inside the convection zone of the sun (Hathaway et al., 2003).
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Abstract The linkage between multi-decadal climate variability and activity of the sun has been long debated based upon observational evidence from a large number of instrumental and proxy records. It is difficult to evaluate the exact role of each of solar parameters on climate change since instrumentally measured solar related parameters such as Total Solar irradiance (TSI), Ultra Violet (UV), solar wind and Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) fluxes are more or less synchronized and only extend back for several decades. Here we report tree-ring carbon-14 based record of 11-year/22-year solar cycles during the Maunder Minimum (17th century) and the early Medieval Maximum Period (9–10th century) to reconstruct the state of the sun and the flux of incoming GCRs. The result strongly indicates that the influence of solar cycles on climate is persistent beyond the period after instrumental observations were initiated. We find that the actual lengths of solar cycles vary depending on the status of long-term solar activity, and that periodicity of the surface air temperatures are also changing synchronously. Temperature variations over the 22-year cycles seem, in general, to be more significant than those associated with the 11-year cycles and in particular around the grand solar minima such as the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715 AD). The polarity dependence of cooling events found in this study suggests that the GCRs can not be excluded from the possible drivers of decadal to multi-decadal climate change.
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Here we examine the relationship between the sun and climate by measuring the carbon-14 content in tree-rings with annual time resolution. The GCR flux and hence the activity level of the sun can be monitored by carbon-14. Our particular focus is around the period of the Maunder Minimum and the early Medieval Maximum Period (EMMP) in the 9–10th century. Sunspot numbers and the activity levels of the sun gradually change in time with quasi-cycles of about 11 years (Schwabe cycle).The polarity of the solar intrinsic magnetic field, which is more or less a simple dipole at every activity minima, reverses at every activity maximum. It changes the track of protons, the positively charged main constituent of GCRs, due to the spirally expanding interplanetary magnetic field formed by solar wind (Kota and Jokipii, 1983) and hence changes the attenuation level of GCRs in the heliosphere. Bulk of the GCRs comes from the polar region of the heliosphere when the polarity of the sun is positive, while GCRs come from the horizontal direction when negative.The attenuation of GCRs in the heliosphere is, therefore, more sensitive when the polarity is negative to the intensity of solar magnetic field and the tilt angle of the current sheets which expand horizontal direction. Thus the variation of the GCR flux on the earth has a “22-year” cyclic component, and will be transferred to the variations in carbon-14.
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These include the Little Ice Age (LIA) between the 14th and the 19th centuries and the so called Medieval Warm Period (MWP) around the 9th to the 12th century. The history of solar activity, on the other hand, has been investigated through cosmogenic radionuclides, such as carbon-14 and beryllium-10, embedded in the tree-rings and ice cores for decadal (Beer et al., 1998) and centennial changes (Stuiver and Quay, 1980, Stuiver and Braziunas, 1989 and Usoskin et al., 2004). The reconstructed records show that the sun has gone through several prolonged activity minima as well as maxima roughly in sync with the cold and warm spells such as the LIA and the MWP (Eddy, 1976 and Stuiver and Braziunas, 1989), although it is still difficult to evaluate solar variations quantitatively. The patterns of climate and solar variations are similar, but the global warming trend has not leveled off during the last few decades when the activity of the sun has peaked (Lockwood and Fröhlich, 2007), pointing that the anthropogenic greenhouse gasses are the major factor responsible for the global warming.
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However, the relationship between the relative intensity of GCRs and the polarity is inverted during the prolonged inactive periods of the sun as is indicated as the “Maunder Minimum mode” in Fig. 4. The flux could be relatively higher when the solar polarity is negative at this mode because the possibly more flattened current sheet could gather the GCRs from the horizontal direction. The variation of temperatures around the Maunder Minimum shows exactly the same behavior and strongly suggests that the GCRs affect the climate on decadal to multi-decadal time scales. Reconstructed solar cycle and solar magnetic polarity using carbon-14 record by Stuiver et al. (1998) and the oxygen isotope records from a Greenland ice core (Vinther et al., 2003) for 1600–1780 AD are plotted together with group sunspot numbers (Hoyt and Schatten, 1998) in Fig. 5-a and b. The solar cycles have been obtained by filtering the carbon-14 content by Stuiver et al. (1998) with the bandwidth of 8–18 years. The measurement errors are smaller than our carbon-14 record (Miyahara et al., 2004), but the short-term variations of the two carbon-14 records are consistent with each other (Miyahara et al., 2007).
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1. Introduction The role and exact extent of natural and anthropogenic forcing for the climate evolution has been under much debate and one of the major sources of external forcing can be through solar variability. As is well summarized by Hoyt and Schatten (1997), several meteorological phenomena, such as temperature variations, cloud coverage, frequency of lightning strikes, and droughts, seem to be responding to solar variables over a wide range of time scales such as the 27-day solar rotation period, 11-year activity cycle, 22-year polarity reversal cycle and the other longer quasi-cyclic periods. Although the most straightforward mechanism of the sun–climate connection is the direct heating of the earth by solar radiation, it is unlikely that the entire solar influence on climate can be attributed simply to the variation of TSI (Foukal et al., 2004 and Foukal et al., 2006).
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